The Reserve Bank board meets on 2 and 3 November, and the latest inflation figures give small business owners good reason to prepare. The ABS reported on 28 October that annual inflation rose to 4.3 per cent in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0 per cent in August. Annual trimmed mean inflation, the measure the RBA watches closely, rose to 3.6 per cent.

Where rates stand

At its last meeting on 29 September, the RBA board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent. The decision was unanimous. The board said further tightening in financial conditions was warranted to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable period, and that it would raise the cash rate further if needed.

We do not know what the board will decide, and forecasters disagree, so the sensible approach is to be ready for either outcome rather than guess.

What to do before the decision

  • Stress test your repayments. List every variable rate loan, overdraft and equipment finance facility. Work out what another 0.25 per cent would add each month and check your cash flow forecast can absorb it.
  • Speak to your lender now. Ask about fixing part of the debt or restructuring repayments while you have options, not after cash gets tight.
  • Review your prices. If your costs have moved, check your prices still leave the margin you need. Small, clearly explained increases are easier on customers than one large jump.
  • Chase overdue invoices. Money owed to you is the cheapest finance you have. Send reminders now and tighten payment terms on new work.
  • Set aside for tax. Keep GST, PAYG withholding and super in a separate account so higher costs do not push you into ATO debt. If you are struggling, contact the ATO before a due date.
  • Watch your customers. If your customers carry mortgages, higher rates can soften their spending. Think about how a quieter month or two would affect your cash.

The decision itself

The RBA publishes its decision on its website at the end of the meeting. Whatever it is, review your forecast the same week and talk to your accountant or bookkeeper if the numbers look tight. A plan made early is much cheaper than a rescue made late.

This article is general information only and does not take your circumstances into account. Check the RBA and ATO websites or speak to a registered tax professional about your situation.