The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter national accounts on Wednesday 2 September. The economy grew, but only modestly: gross domestic product rose 0.4 per cent in the quarter and 2.1 per cent compared with the June quarter of 2025. Across the full 2026 financial year, growth was 2.4 per cent.

Grace Kim, ABS head of national accounts, summed it up this way: "Economic growth remained subdued in the June quarter as households continued to behave cautiously."

What is in the numbers

  • Household spending: up 0.4 per cent in the quarter and 1.8 per cent over the year. The Treasurer's release says vehicle purchases jumped 10.3 per cent and made up roughly two thirds of the rise in consumption. The ABS noted a lift in electric vehicle purchases in particular.
  • Saving: the household saving ratio edged up to 6.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent. People are holding on to a little more, not less.
  • Mortgage costs: the Treasurer's release says mortgage interest costs rose 10.4 per cent.
  • Business investment: down 0.5 per cent in the quarter but still around 10 per cent higher than a year ago, with strength in renewable energy projects, aircraft and data centres.
  • Home building: dwelling investment rose 1.6 per cent in the quarter and 5.8 per cent over the year.
  • GDP per capita: the ABS reports an increase of 0.8 per cent.

What it means for small business

Take out car purchases and household spending was close to flat. For cafes, retailers, tradies and service businesses that rely on discretionary spending, the message is that customers are still buying, but they are thinking harder before they do. With mortgage interest costs up sharply, that caution is unlikely to disappear quickly.

There are bright spots. Home building is growing, which supports trades and suppliers, and wages income is rising. Compensation of employees rose 1.5 per cent in the quarter, according to the Treasurer.

What to do now

  • Forecast conservatively. Build your spring and Christmas budgets on steady sales, not a rebound. Treat any upside as a bonus.
  • Watch your debtors. When households and businesses are careful, invoices get paid slower. Tighten your follow up routine now.
  • Protect your margin. Cautious customers respond to value, but discounting to chase volume can leave you busier and poorer. Know your break even point before running any promotion.
  • Keep a cash buffer. Set aside GST, PAYG and super as you go so a slow month does not become a tax debt.
  • Look where the growth is. If you supply the building or energy sectors, this may be a good time to review capacity.

This article is general information only and is not financial advice. Your accountant can help you turn these trends into a cash flow forecast for your own business.